Wednesday, October 6, 2010

The Next 100 Years

I promised to tell you more about "The Next 100 Years" by George Friedman, so here it is.

George Friedman is a geopolitical analyst, founder of Stratfor, a private intelligence and forecasting company. In "The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century, " he has some interesting predictions on the dust cover of the book :
* In 2020, China fragments
* In 2050, there will be a global war between US, Turkey, Poland, and Japan -- the new great superpowers
* In 2080, space-based energy powers earth
* In 2100, Mexico challenges U.S.

Intriguing, isn't it? I asked an officemate who is from China if the prediction was possible, and the answer was yes, as Chinese history shows.

Friedman's  predictions are based on the premise that in a globally interconnected world, geography plays a very important role in determining political and economic power. In particular, easy access to and control of the seas are very important. Control of space will eventually be important, too, but will not obviate the need for control of the sea for any country that wishes to be in power.

He believes that the 21st century will be the American century, contrary to other people's assertions.

Friedman acknowledges that no one can really predict the future with any certainty, but he believes, given the geopolitical, historical analysis he has done, that he has the general trends right. I thought it interesting that, after I read the book (which was published in 2009), Turkey was in the news asserting some leadership in the region. As for space-based energy, try googling it. Here's one result:

 It is certainly worth reading this book to find out more.


1 comment:

  1. The idea of space energy is interesting, but I wonder if the problem of space junk one day stopping our ability to leave earth may prove his prediction wrong?